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  冉洪流.时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析——以道孚及炉霍潜源为例[J].震灾防御技术,2006,1(3):245-250, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20060309.

时间相依模型与泊松模型计算结果的对比分析——以道孚及炉霍潜源为例
摘要:    运用时间相依的布朗过程时间模型和泊松模型,分别计算了炉霍潜源和道孚潜源7.0≤M<7.5和7.5≤M<8.0震级档未来50a的发震概率,并将其与根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案且运用分档泊松模型所得的计算结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①应用地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔,无论是BPT模型或泊松模型所得到的炉霍和道孚潜源在7.0≤M<7.5震级档的发震概率计算结果,均远大于根据中国地震动参数区划图(2001)潜在震源区划分综合方案所得的计算结果;②对于使用同样的由地震矩率方法得到的各断裂段特征化地震复发间隔数据,BPT模型和泊松模型所得的计算结果也不相同。
作者单位
冉洪流 中国地震局地质研究所北京100029 
关  键  词:时间相依  BPT模型  泊松模型
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20060309
基金项目:中国地震局“十五”重点项目,“地震安全性评价与结构抗震技术研究”资助
收稿日期:2006-06-13
作者简介:冉洪流,男,生于1965年。1988年毕业于中国科学技术大学地球物理专业,副研究员。目前主要从事活动断裂地震危险性评价研究。E-mail:ranhl@tom.com
通讯作者:
Comparison of Computational Results Derived from Time-Dependent and Possion Models Respectively
Abstract:      The earthquake probabilities of Luhuo and Daofu seismic zones with magnitudes range from 7.0≤M<7.5 and 7.5≤M<8.0 in future 50a were calculated by applying Brownian Passage Time and Possion models. The comparison with the results calculated by applying Possion model according to synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter suggests the follows: 1) the computation results of earthquake probabilities of the two sources with magnitude ranging between 7.0 and 7.5, by using both BPT and Possion models that employed the recurrence intervals of faults obtained by applying moment rate method, are more larger than that obtained from synthetical seismic zone delineation of the Zonation Map of Seimic Ground Motion Parameter; 2) the computation results derived from the earthquake moment rate method are quite different from BPT model and Possion model respectively under the condition of using the same data of recurrence intervals.
Keywords:  Time dependent  Brownian Passage-Time model  Possion model
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