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  张莹,郭红梅,尹文刚,申源.基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型研究[J].震灾防御技术,2017,12(4):870-881, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20170415.

基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型研究
摘要:    针对目前常用的地震灾害中人员伤亡评估模型和方法评价指标单一,难以有效体现不同因素对人员伤亡的影响等不足,根据地震造成人员伤亡的原因,对造成人员伤亡的主要因素进行系统分析,在此基础上,选取参与构建地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型的因素。采用多元非线性回归法建立了基于多因素的地震灾害人员伤亡评估模型,并考虑次生地质灾害对评估结果的修正,提高了人员伤亡评估模型在四川地区的适用性及评估结果的可靠性。
作者单位
张莹 四川省地震局, 成都 610041 
郭红梅 四川省地震局, 成都 610041 
尹文刚 武警警官学院, 成都 610213 
申源 四川省地震局, 成都 610041 
关  键  词:地震灾害  人员伤亡  影响因素  评估模型
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20170415
基金项目:国家科技支撑计划项目课题(2015BAK18B03);地震应急青年重点任务(CEA_EDEM-201614);四川省地震局科技专项(LY1613)
收稿日期:2017-04-12
作者简介:张莹,女,生于1989年。助理工程师。主要从事市县地震应急和地震灾情信息处理研究。E-mail:179585473@qq.com
通讯作者:
Study of Multiple Factors-based Earthquake Disaster Casualties Evaluation Model
Abstract:      The currently used earthquake casualties evaluation model and method commonly conside a single factor, that is difficult to reflect the influence of different factors effectively on the casualties. After summarizing historical earthquake cases in the cause of casualties, extracting the main factors of affecting the earthquake casualties for system, we selected the factors involving in construction of earthquake casualty assessment model. Using the multivariate nonlinear regression method we established the earthquake casualty evaluation model based on multiple factors with the consideration of the correction to assessment result from secondary geological disaster. This model improves the applicability and the reliability of assessment result in the Sichuan area.
Keywords:  Earthquake disaster  Casualties  Influence factor  Evaluation model
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