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  李飞,杨冯威,董淼.新沂台前兆异常与射阳4.4级地震的关系及其预测、跟踪分析的研究[J].震灾防御技术,2018,(3):662-670, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20180317.

新沂台前兆异常与射阳4.4级地震的关系及其预测、跟踪分析的研究
摘要:    本文总结了射阳MS 4.4地震前新沂台地电阻率、短水准资料的变化,认为:①在震前,新沂台地电阻率、短水准资料存在较为明显的地震异常;②前兆异常变化与预测地震的发震时刻、震级对应性较强。通过数据跟踪,认为造成预测地点错误的主要原因,是震前对地电阻率的对比分析结果认识不足以及对新沂台地电阻率N45°E向资料变化认识不足或错误。如能再结合测震学参数等资料进行综合分析,预测地点可能更为准确。
作者单位
李飞 江苏省地震局新沂地震台, 江苏新沂 221400 
杨冯威 江苏省地震局新沂地震台, 江苏新沂 221400 
董淼 江苏省地震局新沂地震台, 江苏新沂 221400 
关  键  词:射阳地震  地电阻率  短水准  震群活动  异常特征
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20180317
基金项目:中国地震局监测、预报、科研三结合项目(171107)
收稿日期:2017-12-20
作者简介:李飞,男,生于1970年。高级工程师。主要从事监测预报工作。E-mail:1075624821@qq.com
通讯作者:
Prediction and Tracking Analysis of Precursory Anomalms of the Sheyang MS4.4 Earthquake from Xinyi Station
Abstract:      In this paper, we summarized variations of geo-electrical resistivity and short-leveling data in Xinyi station before the Sheyang MS 4.4 earthquake. We found that there exist obvious anomalies in geoelectrical resistivity and short-leveling before the earthquake. The precursory anomalies are corresponding well with the time and magnitude of the earthquake. By tracking the data, we found that the insufficient understanding of the comparative analysis of the geo-electrical resistivity before earthquakes, and the misunderstanding of channel N45°E of geo-electrical resistivity in Xinyi station before the earthquake, is in responsible for the failure of the correct location determination before the earthquake.
Keywords:  Sheyang earthquake  Geo-electrical resistivity  Short-leveling  Earthquake swarms  Anomaly character
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