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  刘军,宋立军,聂高众,任华育,郝婧,张萌,李世杰,张堡泓.地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例[J].震灾防御技术,2020,15(3):484-495, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20200302.

地震灾害风险评估及减灾策略研究——以贵州罗甸县为例
摘要:    为探究贵州省地震灾害风险薄弱环节,减轻地震灾害风险,以贵州省罗甸县为示范,采用地震危险性概率分析方法对各乡镇进行危险性分析,开展地震灾害承灾体现场抽样调查,通过层次分析法和问卷调查的方式,首次构建乡镇级别的地震灾害风险和减灾能力指标体系,评估各乡镇地震灾害综合指数和程度,计算各乡镇地震灾害风险指数,确定红水河镇为高风险区、罗悃镇为中风险区、木引等7个乡镇为低风险区,并从建筑物设防、地震地质灾害及水库地震等角度剖析罗甸县地震灾害特点,从农村危房改造、移民搬迁、地质灾害防护及交通等方面提出减小地震灾害风险的建议。
作者单位
刘军 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001
新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐 830001 
宋立军 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局, 乌鲁木齐 830001 
聂高众 中国地震局地质研究所, 地震与地质灾害风险研究室, 北京 100029 
任华育 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001 
郝婧 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001 
张萌 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001 
李世杰 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001 
张堡泓 贵州省地震局, 信息服务中心, 贵阳 550001 
关  键  词:地震灾害  风险评估  应对策略  层次分析法
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20200302
基金项目:国家重点研发计划(2017YFC1500905);贵州科技计划重点项目(黔科合基础〔2020〕1Z056);地震科技星火计划攻关(XH20052)
收稿日期:2020-02-23
作者简介:刘军,男,生于1982年。硕士,高级工程师。主要从事地震灾害风险防治与应急技术研究。E-mail:liujun_eq@sina.com
通讯作者:
Study on Earthquake Disaster Risk Assessment and Countermeasures: A Casa Study on Luodian County in Guizhou
Abstract:      In order to explore the weak links of earthquake disaster risk in Guizhou and reduce the risk of earthquake disaster, this paper takes Luodian County of Guizhou as an example, uses the probability analysis method of earthquake risk to carry out a risk analysis on the towns and villages of Luodian County, and carries out the on-site sampling survey of disaster-bearing body. Through adopting the method of AHP and questionnaire survey, a township-level earthquake disaster risk and mitigation capacity index system was constructed for the first time to evaluate the comprehensive index and degree of earthquake disasters for each township in Luodian townships. The calculation of the earthquake disaster risk index determined that 7 townships such as Hongshuihe Town were in a high-risk area, Luopu Town was in a medium-risk area, and Muyin was in a low-risk area. Through the view of building fortification, earthquake geological disasters, and reservoir earthquakes, etc. and the perspective of the analysis of the main characteristics of earthquake disasters in towns and villages of Luodian County, suggestions were put forward to mitigate the risk of earthquake disasters from the perspective of rural dilapidated houses reconstruction, immigration relocation, geological disaster protection and transportation.
Keywords:  Earthquake disaster  Risk assessment  Luodian county  Coping strategies
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