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  谢江丽,阿布都瓦里斯·阿布都瓦衣提,李帅,姚远.利用GM(1,1)预测模型预测房屋面积——以乌鲁木齐市为例[J].震灾防御技术,2021,16(2):263-271, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20210205.

利用GM(1,1)预测模型预测房屋面积——以乌鲁木齐市为例
摘要:    房屋面积数据是地震灾害损失评估的重要参数,也是地震应急数据库基础数据。数据库要求每年及时更新,但数据更新周期较长,达不到更新要求。本研究主要从乌鲁木齐统计年鉴中提取2001—2018年房屋基础数据,建立乌鲁木齐住宅建筑总面积及人均住宅面积数据增长模型,利用GM(1,1)预测模型和多元线性回归模型预测未来2年乌鲁木齐住宅建筑总面积和人均住宅面积。本研究得到的住宅建筑总面积及人均住宅面积数据可作为应急数据库中相关基础数据更新的补充手段,也可作为未来几年震害预测的参考基础数据。
作者单位
谢江丽 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局乌鲁木齐 830011 
阿布都瓦里斯·阿布都瓦衣提 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局乌鲁木齐 830011 
李帅 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局乌鲁木齐 830011 
姚远 新疆维吾尔自治区地震局乌鲁木齐 830011 
关  键  词:GM(1,1)模型  乌鲁木齐  住宅建筑总面积  人均住宅面积
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20210205
基金项目:中国地震局地震应急青年重点任务(CEAEDEM.202022);新疆地震局科技创新团队计划(XJDZCXTD2020-2)
收稿日期:2020-07-15
作者简介:谢江丽,女,生于1987年。工程师。主要从事地震活动性研究方面的工作。E-mail:670198463@qq.com
通讯作者:
Predict House Area By GM (1, 1) Model——A Case Study of Urumqi
Abstract:      Building area is an important parameter of seismic loss assessment and the basic data of earthquake emergency database. The database is required to be updated in time every year, but the statistical data is delayed and the cycle is long, which cannot meet the requirements. We extracted the basic housing data from 2001 to 2018 in Urumqi Statistical Yearbook, then we established the data growth model of total residential building area and per capita residential area in Urumqi. Finally the data of total residential building area and per capita residential area in Urumqi in the next two years were provided by using GM (1, 1) prediction model and multiple linear regression model. The data of total residential building area and per capita residential area obtained in our study can be used as a supplementary means to update the relevant basic data in the emergency database, or as a reference for seismic loss prediction in the next few years.
Keywords:  GM(1, 1) model  Urumqi  Total area of residential buildings  Per capita residential area
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