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  庞炜,谢超,李瑞莎,张佩,路珍.祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估[J].震灾防御技术,2021,16(2):272-282, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20210206.

祁连山-河西走廊西段强震复发概率模型及强震潜势评估
摘要:    祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区发育多条重要活动断裂,多年来已积累较丰富的古地震研究的成果。本文在前人研究基础上,结合历史地震数据等,从定量化强震复发间隔T与平均复发间隔Ta入手,将其比值(T/Ta)进行数学处理,借鉴NB模型的思路,建立祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区模型,进而对强震潜势进行评估。结果表明:祁连山-河西走廊西段构造区内未来可能的强震发生地点是榆木山北缘断裂芦泉河-九个泉段和榆木山东缘断裂梨园河口-黑河口段。
作者单位
庞炜 中国地震局第二监测中心西安 710054 
谢超 中国地震局第二监测中心西安 710054 
李瑞莎 中国地震局第二监测中心西安 710054 
张佩 中国地震局第二监测中心西安 710054 
路珍 中国地震局第二监测中心西安 710054 
关  键  词:祁连山-河西走廊西段  强震  概率分布  T/Ta
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20210206
基金项目:国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目(41802229);中国地震局星火科技项目(XH20080Y)
收稿日期:2020-08-19
作者简介:庞炜,男,生于1989年。工程师。主要从事地震地质和工程地震等方面的研究。E-mail:pangwei89@126.com
通讯作者:谢超,男,生于1983年。副研究员。主要从事地震地质等方面的研究。E-mail:chao.xie0017@163.com
Probability Model for Strong Earthquake Recurrence and Estimates of Seismic Potential in Western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor
Abstract:      Multiple important active faults are developed in western Qilian Mt.- Hexi Corridor, and quantitative research, especially systematic summary on paleoe-earthquakes are carried out in these years.This paper starts with paleoearthquakes and historic and recent earthquakes recurrence intervals for main active fault zones in western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor since Late Pleistocene. By drawing lessons from modeling method of NB model, we have calculated the strong earthquake recurrence interval (T), average strong earthquake recurrence interval (Ta) and value of normalized function (T/Ta) for all specific fault segments, and established the strong earthquake recurrence probability model which shows that the distribution of normalized strong earthquake recurrence internal follows a normal distribution with mean (μ) equal to 1 and standard deviation (σ) of 0.224 3. The result reveals that the potential fault segments for the occurrence of future strong earthquake should be Luquanhe-Jiugequan segment of northern margin fault of Yumushan and Liyuanhe estuary-Heihe estuary part of eastern margin fault of Yumushan.
Keywords:  Western Qilian Mt.-Hexi Corridor  Strong earthquake  Probability distribution  T/Ta value
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