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  牛安福,张凌空,李媛,闫伟,赵静,吉平.芦山MS7.0级地震前的形变空区特征研究[J].震灾防御技术,2013,8(4):341-350, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20130401.

芦山MS7.0级地震前的形变空区特征研究
摘要:    上世纪70年代以来,国内外基本形成了以监测震中附近断层预滑动进行地震预测的研究思路,但近些年来,一些大地震前近震源区域的形变变化却引起了巨大的争议。本文应用芦山地震震中附近跨断层及连续形变观测资料,分析了震前不同阶段地形变变化的特点,讨论了震中附近区域异常时空演化过程。分析结果表明,沿鲜水河断裂带一些跨断层基线、安宁河及则木河断裂带个别场地的跨断层水准基线出现的显著异常变化,这些异常出现在远离芦山地震震中的区域上;在近震源区域,在龙门山断裂带南段的一些断层水准变化量极小,在鲜水河、龙门山和安宁河3条主要断裂围成的三叉口地区,倾斜、应变、重力及断层水准和蠕变观测临震前未有显著的异常变化,该区是形变变化或形变异常分布的“空区”。本文也与汶川地震前形变异常分布进行了对比,认为震前形变“空区”现象可能是强震前的一种共性特征。
作者单位
牛安福 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
张凌空 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
李媛 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
闫伟 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
赵静 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
吉平 中国地震台网中心北京 100045 
关  键  词:芦山地震,近震源区,连续形变,跨断层,形变活动空区,地震预报
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20130401
基金项目:国家科技支撑项目专题(2012BAK19B02,2012BAK19B03),地震行业项目(201108009)联合资助
收稿日期:2013-06-15
作者简介:牛安福,男,生于1964年。博士,研究员。主要研究方向:地形变化机理。 E-mail:niuanfu0l@sina.com
通讯作者:
On the Weak Deformation Area Prior to the Lushan MS7.0 Earthquake
Abstract:      Since 1970’s earthquake prediction based on the monitoring pre-slip of faults near the epicenter has been carried at home and abroad. In recent years, there still exists a huge controversy regarding pre-seismic deformation changes nearby some great earthquake epicenters. In this paper, cross-fault and continuous deformation data around Lushan earthquake area were analyzed, and temporal evolution of anomalies were discussed. Our results show that (1) Some significant anomalies, observed at Xianshuihe, Anninghe and Zemuhe faul, distributed in an area away from the epicenter of the Lushan earthquake; (2) In the near source region, the fault leveling at southern section of the Longmenshan fault had changed at minimal level, in the intersection of Xianshuihe, Longmen and Anninghe-Zemuhe faults, no significant abnormal changes were observed by tilt, strain, gravity, fault leveling and fault creep, which is defined as a weak deformation area in this study. The spatial-temporal evolution of deformation anomalies prior to Lushan earthquake provides a new thinking for earthquake prediction.
Keywords:  Lushan earthquake  Near source region  Continuous deformation  Cross-fault  Weak deformation area  Earthquake prediction
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