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  李姜一,周本刚.中国东部中强地震潜在震源区地震复发概率分布[J].震灾防御技术,2016,11(1):1-10, DOI:10.11899/zzfy20160101.

中国东部中强地震潜在震源区地震复发概率分布
摘要:    本文对中国大陆东部102个中强潜在震源区内1500a以来5—6级地震的复发间隔进行了统计分析,得到了中强地震复发间隔不仅受潜源内断层活动性影响,还与发震构造是否交汇及邻区构造活动等因素有一定关系。中强地震复发间隔大致满足指数分布,通过给出的概率模型可以计算出研究区内各潜在震源区未来一定时间内的发震概率,为地震危险性分析提供一些基础资料。
作者单位
李姜一 中国地震局地质研究所北京100029 
周本刚 中国地震局地质研究所北京100029 
关  键  词:潜在震源区  中强地震  复发间隔  概率模型
DOI:10.11899/zzfy20160101
基金项目:大型先进压水堆核电站国家科技重大专项“CAP1400安全审评技术及独立验证试验”(2011ZX06002-010-15)项目资助
收稿日期:2015-02-28
作者简介:李姜一,女,生于1988年。在读博士研究生。主要研究方向:地震区划与工程地震。E-mail: lijiangyi@ies.ac.cn
通讯作者:
Recurrence Interval Probability Distribution of Moderate-strong Earthquakes in Potential Seismic Source of East China
Abstract:      The statistical analysis is performed to study the recurrence interval of earthquake (5≤M≤6) since 1500a, which occurred in moderate-strong potential seismic source in the east of the update of National Seismic Zoning Map of China. We found that the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes depend on not only fault activity, but also whether seismogenic structures across or structural activities nearby. In the statistical analysis, the recurrence interval of moderate-strong earthquakes is of approximately exponential distribution. We then define the probability model to calculate the probability of earthquake occurrence in potential seismic source in the future, which can provide the basic data to seismic risk analysis of the zone.
Keywords:  Potential seismic source  Moderate-strong earthquakes  Recurrence interval  Probability model
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