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  2019,Vol.14no.2 ,page:401-410

A Method of Determining the Level of Earthquake Emergency Response
Abstract:      As soon as a destructive earthquake occurs, the earthquake emergency response needs to be taken by the government according to the emergency plan. Since it is very difficult for decision-makers to obtain accurate or overall disaster information in short time, it is not easy to determined the level of earthquake emergency response. To solve this problem, we use Delphi method to sort out some key factors which are important in determination of the emergency-response level, and then assign these factors with certain weights. In this study, we set up the threshold of each response level. When an earthquake occurs, we firstly calculate the evaluation values of the emergency-response level on the basis of judgement by experts. Then, after comparing the evaluation values with the threshold, we determine the response level. In verification of our method, we select 10 events of destructive earthquakes since 2011in Yunnan province, and use our method to obtain theoretical levels of emergency response of these events. The levels determined by our method are in good agreement with the levels which have been taken in practice.
Author NameAffiliation
Deng Shurong Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
Zhang Fanghao Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
Yu Qingkun Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
He Shifang Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
Du Haoguo Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
Cao Yanbo Yunnan Earthquake Agency, Kunming 650224, China 
Keywords:    Earthquake emergency  Emergency response level  Influencing factors  Judgment method
Received on:  July 03, 2018
一种地震应急响应级别判定方法
摘要:    破坏性地震发生后,相关部门根据地震应急预案启动地震应急响应,由于难以在第一时间得到准确和全面的灾情信息,因此支撑地震应急响应级别的判定因素有限。本文通过专家调查法,梳理出影响地震应急响应级别判定的关键因子,并对其赋予一定的权值,得到地震应急响应级别的阀值。当地震发生后,采用专家打分的形式计算出1个地震应急响应级别的判定值,通过判定值和阀值区间的关系,判定地震应急响应级别。最后,抽取了2011年以来云南境内发生的10次破坏性地震作为检验样本,结果证明该方法对应率较高,具有一定的适用性。
关  键  词:地震应急  响应级别  影响因子  判定方法
基金项目:国家重点研发计划“地震应急全时程灾情汇聚与决策服务技术研究”(2018YFC1504500),地震科技星火计划专项“云南省地震灾害区域特征研究”(XH17032)
作者简介:邓树荣,男,生于1987年。工程师。主要从事地震应急现场通信保障工作和应急救援理论研究。E-mail:604732139@qq.com
引用本文格式:邓树荣,张方浩,余庆坤,和仕芳,杜浩国,曹彦波.一种地震应急响应级别判定方法[J].震灾防御技术英文版,2019,14(2):401-410  DOI:10.11899/zzfy20190213
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